The last Bitcoin halvening which occurred on July 9th, 2016, happened six months prior to the 2017 bull run that saw Bitcoin tease $20,000. A similar thing happened after the 2012 halvening, which led to a price spike in 2013. This has led many to question whether a similar event will happen following the next halvening, estimated to occur in May next year.
Other analysts have pointed out a potential 150% increase in price six months prior to the halvening, which for the 2020 halvening would be in the next few weeks. However, since crypto market price movements are historically tricky to predict, there doesn’t seem to be any agreement on exactly what might happen.
A mature market
Jihan Wu, CEO of major crypto mining firm Bitmain, doesn’t believe this halvening will precipitate a bull run like previous ones have. He sees the current market as more mature than that of 2017, and one lacking the ability to ‘sell the news’ on a Bitcoin halvening event.
Speaking at the World Digital Mining Summit in Frankfurt, Germany, last week, Wu outlined the need for improved mining equipment if his prediction pans out. Since Bitcoin halvening events cut a miner’s profits in half, an equivalent price increase is imperative if they are to continue turning a profit. The current Bitcoin block reward sits at 12.5 BTC and will fall to 6.25 in approximately 210 days. At the summit, Wu announced the launch of two new Antminer rigs with improved mining efficiency.
No up or down?
Looking long-term on a logarithmic graph, Bitcoin seems likely to trade sideways for a long time before any significant change. This consolidation period theory is backed up by popular crypto trader Dave the Wave (@davethewave) who outlined a similar concept in a Twitter post with an accompanying graph. In his scenario, we are likely to see mild decreases going into 2020 before rising again as the halvening approaches. This would mean Bitcoin’s price at $7,000 would be approximately the same around late 2017, 2018 and 2019.
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